V-Lab
Smith Douglas Homes Corp GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
57.58%
decreased by 0.08%
1 Week
57.58%
decreased by 0.08%
1 Month
57.56%
decreased by 0.10%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:29 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 11, 2024 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 104 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~104 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0864 | 0.55 |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.9906 | 75.88*** |
| γleverage | 0.0054 | 0.17 |
0.993
Persistence104d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0864 | 0.55 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9906 | 75.88*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0054 | 0.17 |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
104 days
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