V-Lab
Smith Douglas Homes Corp Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
58.04%
decreased by 0.41%
1 Week
58.94%
increased by 0.49%
1 Month
59.48%
increased by 1.03%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:30 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 11, 2024 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8013 | 12.82*** |
| αARCH | 0.0377 | 1.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.5501 | 0.79 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0716 | -2.87*** |
0.588
Persistence1d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8013 | 12.82*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0377 | 1.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5501 | 0.79 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0716 | -2.87*** |
Persistence:
0.588
Half-life:
1 days
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