V-Lab
Smith Douglas Homes Corp GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
53.14%
decreased by 0.21%
1 Week
53.20%
decreased by 0.15%
1 Month
53.41%
increased by 0.06%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:30 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 11, 2024 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 24 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 24 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.62 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 24-day half-lifev = 6.62 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 11.6942 | 0.26 |
| αARCH | 0.0089 | 0.08 |
| βGARCH | 0.9717 | 20.76*** |
| νDF | 6.6212 | 0.01 |
0.972
Persistence24d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 11.6942 | 0.26 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0089 | 0.08 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9717 | 20.76*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.6212 | 0.01 |
Persistence:
0.972
Half-life:
24 days
Other Smith Douglas Homes Corp Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on Equities