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Smith Douglas Homes Corp GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

53.14%

decreased by 0.21%

1 Week

53.20%

decreased by 0.15%

1 Month

53.41%

increased by 0.06%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:30 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Smith Douglas Homes Corp GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 11, 2024 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 24 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 24 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.62 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 24-day half-lifev = 6.62 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst11.6942
0.26
αARCH0.0089
0.08
βGARCH0.9717
20.76***
νDF6.6212
0.01

0.972

Persistence

24d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

11.6942
0.26
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0089
0.08
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9717
20.76***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.6212
0.01

Persistence:

0.972

Half-life:

24 days