V-Lab
Smith Douglas Homes Corp Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
56.45%
decreased by 1.37%
1 Week
55.75%
decreased by 2.07%
1 Month
53.24%
decreased by 4.58%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 09:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 11, 2024 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 41% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 0.69 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0227 | 16.72*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0357 | 11.33*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9578 | 291.47*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2454 | 4.23*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.6925 | 7.10*** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
50 days
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