V-Lab
Smith Douglas Homes Corp MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
52.12%
increased by 0.15%
1 Week
54.45%
increased by 2.48%
1 Month
55.94%
increased by 3.97%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 09:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 11, 2024 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.1991 | 0.58 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1076 | 0.41 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 8.6980 | 0.01 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.3771 | 0.01 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0065 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.253
Half-life:
1 days
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