V-Lab
Smith Douglas Homes Corp APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
48.69%
decreased by 0.31%
1 Week
49.17%
increased by 0.17%
1 Month
50.60%
increased by 1.60%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 09:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 11, 2024 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 17 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 17 days. The volatility power δ = 2.63 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0000 | 2.01** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0072 | |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9319 | 107.29*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 1.0000 | |
δ power Transformation power | 2.6280 | 7.37*** |
Persistence:
0.961
Half-life:
17 days
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