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V-Lab

Smith Douglas Homes Corp APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026

1 Day

48.69%

decreased by 0.31%

1 Week

49.17%

increased by 0.17%

1 Month

50.60%

increased by 1.60%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 09:49 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Smith Douglas Homes Corp APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 11, 2024 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 17 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 17 days. The volatility power δ = 2.63 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0000
2.01**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0072
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9319
107.29***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

1.0000
δ

power

Transformation power

2.6280
7.37***

Persistence:

0.961

Half-life:

17 days