V-Lab
Pacer S&P 500 Quality FCF R&D Leaders ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
19.40%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
19.40%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Month
19.40%
unchanged at 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 02:18 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 14, 2026 to Jul 24, 2026Hessian SE
Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 646 trading days (~2.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 63.12 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4934 | 0.04 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9989 | 0.02 |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 63.1215 | 0.15 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
646 days
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