V-Lab
Pacer S&P 500 Quality FCF R&D Leaders ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
18.46%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
18.46%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Month
18.46%
unchanged at 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 02:18 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 14, 2026 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1144 | 4.95*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8218 | 0.95 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.9304 | 0.57 |
Persistence:
0.822
Half-life:
4 days
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