V-Lab
Pacer S&P 500 Quality FCF R&D Leaders ETF Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
14.52%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
14.52%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Month
14.52%
unchanged at 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 02:18 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 14, 2026 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9384 | 5.14*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.1731 | 0.05 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -5.9036 | -1.43 |
Persistence:
0.173
Half-life:
0 days
Other Pacer S&P 500 Quality FCF R&D Leaders ETF Analyses
Other Spline-GARCH Analyses on ETFs