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V-Lab

Pacer S&P 500 Quality FCF R&D Leaders ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

19.91%

decreased by 2.71%

1 Week

19.80%

decreased by 2.82%

1 Month

19.74%

decreased by 2.88%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 02:18 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Pacer S&P 500 Quality FCF R&D Leaders ETF APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 14, 2026 to Jul 24, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.4730
4.99***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0577
3.19***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5420
6.23***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

1.0000
421.94***
δ

power

Transformation power

0.5000
1.90*

Persistence:

0.576

Half-life:

1 days