V-Lab
Pacer S&P 500 Quality FCF R&D Leaders ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
19.91%
decreased by 2.71%
1 Week
19.80%
decreased by 2.82%
1 Month
19.74%
decreased by 2.88%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 02:18 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 14, 2026 to Jul 24, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4730 | 4.99*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0577 | 3.19*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5420 | 6.23*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 1.0000 | 421.94*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.5000 | 1.90* |
Persistence:
0.576
Half-life:
1 days
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