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V-Lab

Simplify NXT Intang Core IDX GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

15.03%

decreased by 0.68%

1 Week

15.10%

decreased by 0.61%

1 Month

15.29%

decreased by 0.42%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 02:16 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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graph of Simplify NXT Intang Core IDX GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 16, 2024 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 14 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 14 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.80 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9824
8.60***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0939
11.30***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9509
175.26***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.7972
1.62

Persistence:

0.951

Half-life:

14 days