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V-Lab

Simplify NXT Intang Core IDX Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

15.50%

decreased by 0.69%

1 Week

15.95%

decreased by 0.24%

1 Month

16.99%

increased by 0.80%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 02:16 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Simplify NXT Intang Core IDX S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 16, 2024 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 8 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7338
5.35***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1366
2.28**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7832
11.59***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.1120
-1.97**

Persistence:

0.920

Half-life:

8 days