V-Lab
Simplify NXT Intang Core IDX Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
15.50%
decreased by 0.69%
1 Week
15.95%
decreased by 0.24%
1 Month
16.99%
increased by 0.80%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 02:16 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 16, 2024 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 8 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7338 | 5.35*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1366 | 2.28** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7832 | 11.59*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.1120 | -1.97** |
Persistence:
0.920
Half-life:
8 days
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