V-Lab
VanEck Uranium and Nuclear ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 22nd, 2026
1 Day
43.47%
1 Week
43.51%
1 Month
43.69%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 21, 2026 at 09:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 15, 2007 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 66014 trading days (~262.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0077 | 2.36** |
| αARCH | 0.0481 | 3.73*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9316 | 102.48*** |
| γleverage | 0.0406 | 1.46 |
1.000
Persistence66014d
Half-lifeGJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0077 | 2.36** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0481 | 3.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9316 | 102.48*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0406 | 1.46 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
66014 days
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