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VanEck Uranium and Nuclear ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 22nd, 2026

1 Day

43.47%

decreased by 0.41%

1 Week

43.51%

decreased by 0.37%

1 Month

43.69%

decreased by 0.19%

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 21, 2026 at 09:46 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of VanEck Uranium and Nuclear ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 15, 2007 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 66014 trading days (~262.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~66014 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0077
2.36**
αARCH0.0481
3.73***
βGARCH0.9316
102.48***
γleverage0.0406
1.46

1.000

Persistence

66014d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0077
2.36**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0481
3.73***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9316
102.48***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0406
1.46

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

66014 days