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VanEck Uranium and Nuclear ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 22nd, 2026

1 Day

45.84%

increased by 0.60%

1 Week

45.81%

increased by 0.57%

1 Month

45.68%

increased by 0.44%

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 21, 2026 at 09:46 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of VanEck Uranium and Nuclear ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 15, 2007 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 390 trading days (~1.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.97 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~390 daysv = 6.97 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst5.1959
1.70*
αARCH0.0675
12.53***
βGARCH0.9982
1,082.67***
νDF6.9713
2.66***

0.998

Persistence

390d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.1959
1.70*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0675
12.53***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9982
1,082.67***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.9713
2.66***

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

390 days