V-Lab
VanEck Uranium and Nuclear ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
43.60%
decreased by 0.87%
1 Week
44.44%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Month
46.72%
increased by 2.25%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:37 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 15, 2007 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 12 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2870 | 6.60*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0799 | 5.68*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8650 | 41.69*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0646 | 0.36 |
| γ2 | -0.2240 | -0.77 |
| γ3 | 0.3371 | 1.79* |
| γ4 | -0.3266 | -2.50** |
| γ5 | 0.3411 | 3.00*** |
| γ6 | -0.2672 | -2.44** |
| γ7 | 0.2083 | 2.02** |
| γ8 | -0.2781 | -3.71*** |
Persistence:
0.945
Half-life:
12 days
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