V-Lab
VanEck Uranium and Nuclear ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
41.62%
increased by 0.72%
1 Week
42.14%
increased by 1.24%
1 Month
43.88%
increased by 2.98%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 15, 2007 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 301% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 101 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0280 | 7.91*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8628 | 194.01*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0842 | 15.78*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0086 | 2.57** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1912 | 26.10*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8088 | 136.93*** |
Persistence:
0.933
Half-life:
10 days
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