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V-Lab

Jpmorgan US Bond Active ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

6.41%

increased by 0.07%

1 Week

6.40%

increased by 0.06%

1 Month

6.40%

increased by 0.06%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:35 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Jpmorgan US Bond Active ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 1, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.96 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1624
2.28**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0552
1.16
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6100
7.41***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.9617
0.53

Persistence:

0.610

Half-life:

1 days