V-Lab
Jpmorgan US Bond Active ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
6.41%
increased by 0.07%
1 Week
6.40%
increased by 0.06%
1 Month
6.40%
increased by 0.06%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:35 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 1, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.96 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1624 | 2.28** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0552 | 1.16 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6100 | 7.41*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.9617 | 0.53 |
Persistence:
0.610
Half-life:
1 days
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