V-Lab
Jpmorgan US Bond Active ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
3.13%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
2.75%
decreased by 0.38%
1 Month
2.60%
decreased by 0.53%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:35 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 1, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8832 | 3.40*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3600 | 1.71* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | 82.2837 | 1.05 |
| γ2 | -180.1291 | -1.40 |
| γ3 | 225.1077 | 2.12** |
| γ4 | -237.2972 | -2.36** |
| γ5 | 254.6092 | 3.04*** |
| γ6 | -333.3919 | -4.63*** |
| γ7 | 268.0987 | 4.03*** |
Persistence:
0.360
Half-life:
1 days
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