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V-Lab

Jpmorgan US Bond Active ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

3.13%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Week

2.75%

decreased by 0.38%

1 Month

2.60%

decreased by 0.53%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:35 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Jpmorgan US Bond Active ETF S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 1, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8832
3.40***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3600
1.71*
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0000
0.00
γi Spline Coefficients
K=7
γ182.2837
1.05
γ2-180.1291
-1.40
γ3225.1077
2.12**
γ4-237.2972
-2.36**
γ5254.6092
3.04***
γ6-333.3919
-4.63***
γ7268.0987
4.03***

Persistence:

0.360

Half-life:

1 days