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V-Lab

Jpmorgan US Bond Active ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

3.46%

increased by 0.38%

1 Week

3.34%

increased by 0.26%

1 Month

3.29%

increased by 0.21%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:35 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Jpmorgan US Bond Active ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 1, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

106
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1627
8.47***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.2993
64.96***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1627
-8.60***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0000
0.00
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0132
0.65
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9549
19.28***

Persistence:

0.381

Half-life:

1 days