V-Lab
Jpmorgan US Bond Active ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
3.46%
increased by 0.38%
1 Week
3.34%
increased by 0.26%
1 Month
3.29%
increased by 0.21%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:35 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 1, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 106 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1627 | 8.47*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.2993 | 64.96*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1627 | -8.60*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0132 | 0.65 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9549 | 19.28*** |
Persistence:
0.381
Half-life:
1 days
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