V-Lab
Direxion Daily Intc Bull 2X ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
158.28%
decreased by 5.91%
1 Week
27,086,990.53%
increased by 27,086,826.34%
1 Month
282,374,538,512,239,100,000,000,000,000.00%
increased by 282,374,538,512,239,100,000,000,000,000.00%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:25 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 19, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 56 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0041 | 0.02 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8596 | 2.38** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0040 | -0.02 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.8371 | 0.02 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.862
Half-life:
5 days
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