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V-Lab

IBEX 35 Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

16.56%

decreased by 0.62%

1 Week

16.81%

decreased by 0.37%

1 Month

17.63%

increased by 0.45%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 04:05 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of IBEX 35 Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 397% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 397% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0435
5.70***
αARCH0.0316
2.75***
βGARCH0.8813
105.58***
γleverage0.1255
5.21***

0.976

Persistence

28d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0435
5.70***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0316
2.75***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8813
105.58***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1255
5.21***

Persistence:

0.976

Half-life:

28 days