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IBEX 35 Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, November 12th, 2026

1 Day

19.55%

decreased by 1.15%

1 Week

19.39%

decreased by 1.31%

1 Month

18.90%

decreased by 1.80%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, November 11, 2026 at 05:05 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/11/2024

to

11/11/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of IBEX 35 Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 17 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.9048
5.52***
αARCH0.1101
9.10***
βGARCH0.8500
73.83***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ1-0.0295
-0.84
γ20.0661
1.10
γ3-0.0974
-2.26**
γ40.1426
4.63***
γ5-0.1523
-6.04***
γ60.0965
3.51***
γ7-0.0279
-1.01
γ80.0040
0.21

0.960

Persistence

17d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9048
5.52***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1101
9.10***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8500
73.83***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ1-0.0295
-0.84
γ20.0661
1.10
γ3-0.0974
-2.26**
γ40.1426
4.63***
γ5-0.1523
-6.04***
γ60.0965
3.51***
γ7-0.0279
-1.01
γ80.0040
0.21

Persistence:

0.960

Half-life:

17 days