V-Lab
G K P Printing & Packaging Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
25.05%
decreased by 1.38%
1 Week
27.01%
increased by 0.58%
1 Month
28.44%
increased by 2.01%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 08:59 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 8, 2019 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.9709 | 2.41** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2246 | 5.34*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4382 | 4.79*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.3079 | -0.11 |
| γ2 | 1.7960 | 0.42 |
| γ3 | -3.6432 | -1.10 |
| γ4 | 5.0447 | 2.06** |
| γ5 | -6.6073 | -3.31*** |
| γ6 | 6.9697 | 2.95*** |
| γ7 | -5.6114 | -1.60 |
| γ8 | 5.4589 | 1.50 |
| γ9 | -6.0686 | -2.73*** |
| γ10 | 4.1286 | 3.84*** |
Persistence:
0.663
Half-life:
2 days
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