V-Lab
G K P Printing & Packaging AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
45.79%
decreased by 2.04%
1 Week
47.75%
decreased by 0.08%
1 Month
52.96%
increased by 5.13%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 12:57 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 8, 2019 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -0.70) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7559 | 12.22*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1300 | 19.53*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8175 | 149.95*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.6985 | -3.03*** |
Persistence:
0.948
Half-life:
13 days
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