V-Lab
G K P Printing & Packaging Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
41.42%
decreased by 12.79%
1 Week
37.19%
decreased by 17.02%
1 Month
33.34%
decreased by 20.87%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 12:57 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 8, 2019 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.9685 | 2.38** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2258 | 5.34*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4515 | 5.10*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.3463 | -0.12 |
| γ2 | 1.8845 | 0.42 |
| γ3 | -3.8062 | -1.10 |
| γ4 | 5.3219 | 2.08** |
| γ5 | -6.9123 | -3.22*** |
| γ6 | 7.2289 | 2.75*** |
| γ7 | -5.9445 | -1.57 |
| γ8 | 5.9186 | 1.59 |
| γ9 | -6.3559 | -2.54** |
| γ10 | 4.2579 | 1.39 |
Persistence:
0.677
Half-life:
2 days
Other G K P Printing & Packaging Analyses
Other Spline-GARCH Analyses on International Equities