V-Lab
G K P Printing & Packaging APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
43.82%
1 Week
44.51%
1 Month
46.50%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 12:57 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 8, 2019 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 37% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets. The volatility power δ = 2.71 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0000 | 3.65*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0752 | 8.85*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8550 | 102.07*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0581 | -2.39** |
δ power Transformation power | 2.7115 | 15.10*** |
Persistence:
0.959
Half-life:
16 days
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