V-Lab
FT Vest US EQ MO BU ETF July MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
5.47%
decreased by 0.26%
1 Week
5.69%
decreased by 0.04%
1 Month
6.36%
increased by 0.63%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 02:17 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 24, 2023 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 106 | |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.8474 | 16.15*** |
| γleverage | 0.2462 | 5.84*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.2889 | 0.48 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
0.971
Persistence23d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 106 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8474 | 16.15*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2462 | 5.84*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.2889 | 0.48 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.971
Half-life:
23 days
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