Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

FT Vest US EQ MO BU ETF July Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

5.27%

increased by 0.49%

1 Week

5.24%

increased by 0.46%

1 Month

5.15%

increased by 0.37%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 02:17 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of FT Vest US EQ MO BU ETF July S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 24, 2023 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.9466
3.69***
αARCH0.2052
3.38***
βGARCH0.7185
10.82***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=5
γ1-7.1604
-2.25**
γ215.3119
2.95***
γ3-14.5417
-3.67***
γ47.8782
2.39**
γ5-0.8608
-0.40

0.924

Persistence

9d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9466
3.69***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2052
3.38***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7185
10.82***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=5
γ1-7.1604
-2.25**
γ215.3119
2.95***
γ3-14.5417
-3.67***
γ47.8782
2.39**
γ5-0.8608
-0.40

Persistence:

0.924

Half-life:

9 days