V-Lab
FT Vest US EQ MO BU ETF July Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
5.80%
decreased by 0.68%
1 Week
5.71%
decreased by 0.77%
1 Month
5.47%
decreased by 1.01%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 24, 2023 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 10 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9147 | 3.51*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1976 | 3.10*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7348 | 10.39*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -8.5362 | -2.44** |
| γ2 | 17.3767 | 3.10*** |
| γ3 | -14.8050 | -3.60*** |
| γ4 | 6.4312 | 1.94* |
| γ5 | 0.6285 | 0.28 |
Persistence:
0.932
Half-life:
10 days
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