V-Lab
FT Vest US EQ MO BU ETF July Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
5.27%
increased by 0.49%
1 Week
5.24%
increased by 0.46%
1 Month
5.15%
increased by 0.37%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 02:17 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 24, 2023 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9466 | 3.69*** |
| αARCH | 0.2052 | 3.38*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7185 | 10.82*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -7.1604 | -2.25** |
| γ2 | 15.3119 | 2.95*** |
| γ3 | -14.5417 | -3.67*** |
| γ4 | 7.8782 | 2.39** |
| γ5 | -0.8608 | -0.40 |
0.924
Persistence9d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9466 | 3.69*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2052 | 3.38*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7185 | 10.82*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -7.1604 | -2.25** |
| γ2 | 15.3119 | 2.95*** |
| γ3 | -14.5417 | -3.67*** |
| γ4 | 7.8782 | 2.39** |
| γ5 | -0.8608 | -0.40 |
Persistence:
0.924
Half-life:
9 days
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