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V-Lab

FT Vest US EQ MO BU ETF July Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

5.80%

decreased by 0.68%

1 Week

5.71%

decreased by 0.77%

1 Month

5.47%

decreased by 1.01%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:32 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of FT Vest US EQ MO BU ETF July S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 24, 2023 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 10 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9147
3.51***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1976
3.10***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7348
10.39***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=5
γ1-8.5362
-2.44**
γ217.3767
3.10***
γ3-14.8050
-3.60***
γ46.4312
1.94*
γ50.6285
0.28

Persistence:

0.932

Half-life:

10 days