V-Lab
FT Vest US EQ MO BU ETF July GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
5.11%
decreased by 0.30%
1 Week
5.27%
decreased by 0.14%
1 Month
5.83%
increased by 0.42%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 24, 2023 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 62 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 62 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.86 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4074 | 5.51*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1397 | 38.93*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9889 | 521.86*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.8559 | 22.22*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
62 days
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