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FT Vest US EQ MO BU ETF July GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

5.11%

decreased by 0.30%

1 Week

5.27%

decreased by 0.14%

1 Month

5.83%

increased by 0.42%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:32 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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graph of FT Vest US EQ MO BU ETF July GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 24, 2023 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 62 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 62 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.86 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.4074
5.51***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1397
38.93***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9889
521.86***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.8559
22.22***

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

62 days