Gazprom PAO Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, June 5th, 2025
1 Day
0.00%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
0.00%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Month
0.00%
unchanged at 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 11:30 PM UTC
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How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 24, 2006 to Jun 4, 2025Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 10 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 47.5536 | |
| αARCH | 0.3564 | |
| βGARCH | 0.5754 |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -2.7494 | |
| γ2 | 19.5702 | |
| γ3 | -43.1085 | |
| γ4 | 50.7323 | |
| γ5 | -40.0011 | |
| γ6 | 22.5702 | |
| γ7 | 54.2198 | |
| γ8 | -250.7140 | |
| γ9 | 320.7213 |
0.932
Persistence10d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 47.5536 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3564 | |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5754 |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -2.7494 | |
| γ2 | 19.5702 | |
| γ3 | -43.1085 | |
| γ4 | 50.7323 | |
| γ5 | -40.0011 | |
| γ6 | 22.5702 | |
| γ7 | 54.2198 | |
| γ8 | -250.7140 | |
| γ9 | 320.7213 |
Persistence:
0.932
Half-life:
10 days
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