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Gazprom PAO Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, June 5th, 2025

1 Day

0.00%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Week

0.00%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Month

0.00%

unchanged at 0.00%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 11:30 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Gazprom PAO S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 24, 2006 to Jun 4, 2025

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 10 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst47.5536
αARCH0.3564
βGARCH0.5754
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ1-2.7494
γ219.5702
γ3-43.1085
γ450.7323
γ5-40.0011
γ622.5702
γ754.2198
γ8-250.7140
γ9320.7213

0.932

Persistence

10d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

47.5536
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3564
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5754
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ1-2.7494
γ219.5702
γ3-43.1085
γ450.7323
γ5-40.0011
γ622.5702
γ754.2198
γ8-250.7140
γ9320.7213

Persistence:

0.932

Half-life:

10 days