V-Lab
Gazprom PAO Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, June 5th, 2025
1 Day
0.00%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
0.00%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Month
0.00%
unchanged at 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 11:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 24, 2006 to Jun 4, 2025Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 46.9194 | |
| αARCH | 0.2771 | |
| βGARCH | 0.5636 |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.0719 | |
| γ2 | -16.3793 | |
| γ3 | 54.1377 | |
| γ4 | -114.4793 |
0.841
Persistence4d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 46.9194 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2771 | |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5636 |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.0719 | |
| γ2 | -16.3793 | |
| γ3 | 54.1377 | |
| γ4 | -114.4793 |
Persistence:
0.841
Half-life:
4 days
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