Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

Gazprom PAO Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, June 5th, 2025

1 Day

0.00%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Week

0.00%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Month

0.00%

unchanged at 0.00%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 11:30 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Gazprom PAO SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 24, 2006 to Jun 4, 2025

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst46.9194
αARCH0.2771
βGARCH0.5636
γi Spline Coefficients
K=4
γ10.0719
γ2-16.3793
γ354.1377
γ4-114.4793

0.841

Persistence

4d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

46.9194
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2771
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5636
γi Spline Coefficients
K=4
γ10.0719
γ2-16.3793
γ354.1377
γ4-114.4793

Persistence:

0.841

Half-life:

4 days