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V-Lab
V-Lab

Gazprom PAO APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, June 5th, 2025

1 Day

0.00%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Week

0.00%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Month

0.00%

unchanged at 0.00%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 11:30 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Gazprom PAO APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 24, 2006 to Jun 4, 2025
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 69 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 69 days. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 69-day half-lifeδ = 0.50 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0000
0.06
αARCH0.0564
0.60
βGARCH0.9436
8.65***
γleverage0.0167
0.02
δpower0.5000
0.47

0.990

Persistence

69d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0000
0.06
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0564
0.60
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9436
8.65***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0167
0.02
δ

power

Transformation power

0.5000
0.47

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

69 days