V-Lab
Gazprom PAO APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, June 5th, 2025
1 Day
0.00%
1 Week
0.00%
1 Month
0.00%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 11:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 24, 2006 to Jun 4, 2025Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 69 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 69 days. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0000 | 0.06 |
| αARCH | 0.0564 | 0.60 |
| βGARCH | 0.9436 | 8.65*** |
| γleverage | 0.0167 | 0.02 |
| δpower | 0.5000 | 0.47 |
0.990
Persistence69d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0000 | 0.06 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0564 | 0.60 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9436 | 8.65*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0167 | 0.02 |
δ power Transformation power | 0.5000 | 0.47 |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
69 days
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