V-Lab
Fidelity Advantage Bitcoin ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
52.85%
increased by 4.55%
1 Week
52.84%
increased by 4.54%
1 Month
52.83%
increased by 4.53%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 01:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 2, 2021 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 14 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 14 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.99 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 11.0590 | 4.81*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0528 | 9.60*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9504 | 53.70*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.9887 | 1.80* |
Persistence:
0.950
Half-life:
14 days
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