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V-Lab

Fidelity Advantage Bitcoin ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

52.85%

increased by 4.55%

1 Week

52.84%

increased by 4.54%

1 Month

52.83%

increased by 4.53%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 01:41 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Fidelity Advantage Bitcoin ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 2, 2021 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 14 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 14 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.99 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

11.0590
4.81***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0528
9.60***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9504
53.70***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.9887
1.80*

Persistence:

0.950

Half-life:

14 days