V-Lab
Fidelity Advantage Bitcoin ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
52.21%
increased by 1.69%
1 Week
52.17%
increased by 1.65%
1 Month
52.11%
increased by 1.59%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 01:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 2, 2021 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 216% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.4561 | 12.11*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0493 | 4.17*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6694 | 33.04*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1063 | 2.38** |
Persistence:
0.772
Half-life:
3 days
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