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V-Lab

Fidelity Advantage Bitcoin ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

52.21%

increased by 1.69%

1 Week

52.17%

increased by 1.65%

1 Month

52.11%

increased by 1.59%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 01:40 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Fidelity Advantage Bitcoin ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 2, 2021 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 216% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.4561
12.11***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0493
4.17***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6694
33.04***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1063
2.38**

Persistence:

0.772

Half-life:

3 days