V-Lab
Fidelity Advantage Bitcoin ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
54.36%
increased by 2.96%
1 Week
50.31%
decreased by 1.09%
1 Month
45.71%
decreased by 5.69%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 01:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 2, 2021 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3521 | 8.67*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0932 | 2.64*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6478 | 5.83*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0341 | 3.31*** |
Persistence:
0.741
Half-life:
2 days
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