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V-Lab

Fidelity Advantage Bitcoin ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

54.36%

increased by 2.96%

1 Week

50.31%

decreased by 1.09%

1 Month

45.71%

decreased by 5.69%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 01:40 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Fidelity Advantage Bitcoin ETF S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 2, 2021 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.3521
8.67***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0932
2.64***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6478
5.83***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0341
3.31***

Persistence:

0.741

Half-life:

2 days