V-Lab
Fidelity Advantage Bitcoin ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
44.92%
increased by 2.66%
1 Week
44.61%
increased by 2.35%
1 Month
44.95%
increased by 2.69%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 01:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 2, 2021 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 256% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 86 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0413 | 5.66*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7582 | 74.89*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1055 | 7.84*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 3.1780 | 0.57 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.5861 | 0.69 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0676 | 0.05 |
Persistence:
0.852
Half-life:
4 days
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