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V-Lab

Fidelity Advantage Bitcoin ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

44.92%

increased by 2.66%

1 Week

44.61%

increased by 2.35%

1 Month

44.95%

increased by 2.69%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 01:41 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Fidelity Advantage Bitcoin ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 2, 2021 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 256% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

86
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0413
5.66***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7582
74.89***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1055
7.84***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

3.1780
0.57
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.5861
0.69
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0676
0.05

Persistence:

0.852

Half-life:

4 days