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V-Lab

AlphaDroid Defensive Sector Rotation ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

32.45%

increased by 2.08%

1 Week

33.22%

increased by 2.85%

1 Month

37.90%

increased by 7.53%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 02:21 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of AlphaDroid Defensive Sector Rotation ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 16, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 35 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 35 days.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

31
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0330
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8128
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2696
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

1.8772
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.2152
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.6458

Persistence:

0.981

Half-life:

35 days