V-Lab
AlphaDroid Defensive Sector Rotation ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
32.45%
increased by 2.08%
1 Week
33.22%
increased by 2.85%
1 Month
37.90%
increased by 7.53%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 02:21 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 16, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 35 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 35 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 31 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0330 | |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8128 | |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2696 | |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 1.8772 | |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.2152 | |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.6458 |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
35 days
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