V-Lab
AlphaDroid Defensive Sector Rotation ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
26.58%
increased by 1.35%
1 Week
25.95%
increased by 0.72%
1 Month
24.41%
decreased by 0.82%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 02:21 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 16, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1761 | 5.49*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0656 | 1.67* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7935 | 26.92*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1049 | 1.34 |
Persistence:
0.911
Half-life:
7 days
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