V-Lab
AlphaDroid Defensive Sector Rotation ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
32.49%
increased by 0.21%
1 Week
32.57%
increased by 0.29%
1 Month
32.58%
increased by 0.30%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 02:21 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 16, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5616 | 3.91*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0466 | 0.46 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -180.0951 | -2.75*** |
| γ2 | 303.5453 | 2.94*** |
| γ3 | -263.8112 | -3.14*** |
| γ4 | 288.1817 | 3.30*** |
| γ5 | -203.3513 | -2.38** |
| γ6 | 44.7435 | 0.85 |
Persistence:
0.047
Half-life:
0 days
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