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AlphaDroid Defensive Sector Rotation ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

29.80%

increased by 0.96%

1 Week

29.44%

increased by 0.60%

1 Month

28.25%

decreased by 0.59%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 02:21 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of AlphaDroid Defensive Sector Rotation ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 16, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 20 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 20 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.22 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.2223
3.06***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1055
6.48***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9664
66.15***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.2180
1.53

Persistence:

0.966

Half-life:

20 days