V-Lab
iShares MSCI South Korea ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
75.17%
increased by 4.27%
1 Week
74.70%
increased by 3.80%
1 Month
72.88%
increased by 1.98%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:20 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 12, 2000 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 89 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 116% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0335 | 13.39*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0439 | 15.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9228 | 475.44*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0511 | 9.65*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
89 days
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