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V-Lab

iShares MSCI South Korea ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

75.17%

increased by 4.27%

1 Week

74.70%

increased by 3.80%

1 Month

72.88%

increased by 1.98%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:20 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI South Korea ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 12, 2000 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 89 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 116% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0335
13.39***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0439
15.18***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9228
475.44***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0511
9.65***

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

89 days