V-Lab
iShares MSCI South Korea ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
48.48%
decreased by 0.67%
1 Week
48.27%
decreased by 0.88%
1 Month
47.45%
decreased by 1.70%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 12, 2000 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 85 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 114% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~85 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 114% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0346 | 3.45*** |
| αARCH | 0.0446 | 3.84*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9218 | 118.44*** |
| γleverage | 0.0508 | 2.38** |
0.992
Persistence85d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0346 | 3.45*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0446 | 3.84*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9218 | 118.44*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0508 | 2.38** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
85 days
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