V-Lab
iShares MSCI South Korea ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
72.75%
increased by 7.36%
1 Week
72.44%
increased by 7.05%
1 Month
72.04%
increased by 6.65%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:21 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 12, 2000 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 81 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0194 | 8.25*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8569 | 215.47*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1015 | 28.64*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.1017 | 3.01*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.3724 | 10.68*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.6031 | 13.16*** |
Persistence:
0.927
Half-life:
9 days
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