V-Lab
iShares MSCI South Korea ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
42.63%
increased by 0.46%
1 Week
41.98%
decreased by 0.19%
1 Month
39.83%
decreased by 2.34%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:25 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 12, 2000 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 21 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.3398 | 5.39*** |
| αARCH | 0.0827 | 8.25*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8840 | 71.84*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.0466 | 4.21*** |
| γ2 | -0.0668 | -4.00*** |
| γ3 | 0.0465 | 3.59*** |
| γ4 | -0.0384 | -4.58*** |
0.967
Persistence21d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.3398 | 5.39*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0827 | 8.25*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8840 | 71.84*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.0466 | 4.21*** |
| γ2 | -0.0668 | -4.00*** |
| γ3 | 0.0465 | 3.59*** |
| γ4 | -0.0384 | -4.58*** |
Persistence:
0.967
Half-life:
21 days
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