V-Lab
iShares MSCI South Korea ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
74.58%
increased by 4.30%
1 Week
74.53%
increased by 4.25%
1 Month
74.33%
increased by 4.05%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:21 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 12, 2000 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 421 trading days (~1.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.37 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 13.1201 | 6.53*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0719 | 46.66*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9984 | 3,753.21*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 9.3701 | 6.07*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
421 days
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