V-Lab
Defiance 2x Daily Long Pure Drone and Aerial Automation ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Last recorded values (Friday, August 28th, 2026):
1 Day
54.58%
1 Week
54.75%
1 Month
51.71%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 2, 2026 at 07:01 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 3, 2026 to Aug 27, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 138629 trading days (~550.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 61 | |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 1.0000 | 0.10 |
| γleverage | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0159 | 3.39*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.8925 | 125.02*** |
1.000
Persistence138629d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 61 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 1.0000 | 0.10 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0159 | 3.39*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8925 | 125.02*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
138629 days
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