V-Lab
Defiance 2x Daily Long Pure Drone and Aerial Automation ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
102.17%
increased by 6.69%
1 Week
147.45%
increased by 51.97%
1 Month
192.03%
increased by 96.55%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 02:16 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 3, 2026 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 31 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.02 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5000 | 17.13*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.4242 | 0.23 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.2023 | 0.06 |
Persistence:
0.250
Half-life:
1 days
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