V-Lab
Defiance 2x Daily Long Pure Drone and Aerial Automation ETF Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
151.04%
1 Week
137.88%
1 Month
123.00%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 02:15 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 3, 2026 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 12% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6194 | 3.41*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3350 | 9.05*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4954 | 6.71*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1128 | -2.00** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.5000 | 5.27*** |
Persistence:
0.770
Half-life:
3 days
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