V-Lab
Defiance 2x Daily Long Pure Drone and Aerial Automation ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
229.90%
decreased by 26.74%
1 Week
228.19%
decreased by 28.45%
1 Month
225.53%
decreased by 31.11%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 02:15 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 3, 2026 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6209 | 3.63*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0733 | 3.40*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7919 | 13.41*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -1.0000 | -399.52*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.5000 | 3.41*** |
Persistence:
0.835
Half-life:
4 days
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