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V-Lab

Defiance 2x Daily Long Pure Drone and Aerial Automation ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026

1 Day

229.90%

decreased by 26.74%

1 Week

228.19%

decreased by 28.45%

1 Month

225.53%

decreased by 31.11%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 02:15 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Defiance 2x Daily Long Pure Drone and Aerial Automation ETF APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 3, 2026 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.6209
3.63***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0733
3.40***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7919
13.41***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-1.0000
-399.52***
δ

power

Transformation power

0.5000
3.41***

Persistence:

0.835

Half-life:

4 days