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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Biofuel Spot Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026

1 Day

17.69%

decreased by 0.14%

1 Week

17.71%

decreased by 0.12%

1 Month

17.78%

decreased by 0.05%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 4, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of S&P GSCI Biofuel Spot Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 16, 1995 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 66 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 66 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.99 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.3722
14.15***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0450
31.79***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9896
1,152.01***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

9.9943
3.72***

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

66 days