V-Lab
S&P GSCI Biofuel Spot Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
17.69%
decreased by 0.14%
1 Week
17.71%
decreased by 0.12%
1 Month
17.78%
decreased by 0.05%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 4, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 16, 1995 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 66 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 66 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.99 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3722 | 14.15*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0450 | 31.79*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9896 | 1,152.01*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 9.9943 | 3.72*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
66 days
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