S&P GSCI All Cattle Spot Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026
1 Day
13.55%
decreased by 0.24%
1 Week
13.60%
decreased by 0.19%
1 Month
13.80%
increased by 0.01%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 11:10 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 2002 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0125 | 4.29*** |
| αARCH | 0.0130 | 2.02** |
| βGARCH | 0.9453 | 155.78*** |
| γleverage | 0.0573 | 3.87*** |
0.987
Persistence53d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0125 | 4.29*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0130 | 2.02** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9453 | 155.78*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0573 | 3.87*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
53 days
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