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V-Lab

Goldman Sachs Physical Gold ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

23.43%

decreased by 1.01%

1 Week

23.05%

decreased by 1.39%

1 Month

24.63%

increased by 0.19%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:28 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Goldman Sachs Physical Gold ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 15, 2018 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 189% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

121
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1436
18.98***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8460
130.57***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0939
-11.15***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.1009
1.24
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.8570
1.30
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.1215
0.18

Persistence:

0.943

Half-life:

12 days