V-Lab
Goldman Sachs Physical Gold ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
23.43%
1 Week
23.05%
1 Month
24.63%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 15, 2018 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 189% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 121 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1436 | 18.98*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8460 | 130.57*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0939 | -11.15*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.1009 | 1.24 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.8570 | 1.30 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.1215 | 0.18 |
Persistence:
0.943
Half-life:
12 days
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